Some little time go I had a fairly veiled rant about the focus of media attention on the short-term movement in investment markets. I thought a few pictures might amplify, so I took to the stocks app on my iPhone.
It is important to recognise that the news cycle, particularly around investment markets, is very short.
I guess the focus of Allan Kohler’s report tonight on the ABC News will be on this chart, We are reporting the nightly news after all, and it has to be topical, tomorrow is another day. Lots of red ink (Allan’s favourite colour), “a savage plummet, even though a recovery looked possible, it all tailed off recently”.
The Today show tomorrow morning will no doubt continue the theme. This of course is a one-day chart of ASX performance up until 2.39 on 10th August as I write this, and reflects a negative 0.18% return.
Our next chart looks a little like the first, though at least it’s green. Thank heaven’s markets recovered from the bottom. I was starting to get really worried there for a minute, but everything looks like it’s going to be alright. In fact, we have a one-week chart to today 10th August, perhaps a little early for the champagne corks.
Gee markets have been strong lately, look at that, we’re in a bull run, let’s get in while we can. Or, is one month since the end of financial year 2022 enough information to be basing our decisions on.
Things look really grim, “Billions wiped off the super balances of ordinary Australians”, “Wild ride on investment markets”. “Dead Cat Bounce, followed by a slow grind of a recovery”. “Market still in negative territory despite government stimulus”. “Investors remain cautious, waiting for the next sell-off” 6 months to 10th August 2022.
Prolonged downturn, when will markets return to normal?” Can we ever expect to return to the peak of 7,600. Should Australians contemplate cutting their losses now there has been a slight recovery from the savage declines? 1 year to 10th August.
“Despite recent declines market has continued on its long bull run”. “Investors remain confident that strong performance can continue”. 2 years to 10th August 2022.
“Strong recovery after biggest sell-off in recent history”. 5 years to 10th August 2022.
“I just want this market to last forever”. “Australian super balances going through the roof”. “Pots of Gold – how Australian superannuants made their billions”.
As investors and financial advisers we always look long term, becaue we do not need to sell newspapers or the nightly news. How you view markets is significantly impacted by both your time horizon and your starting point. Try to close out the noise. I think you get the picture.
STOP THE PRESS:
One week since I wrote this piece, investment markets have had a great week. Depends on whether you are looking at the week as a whole or whether you are still in last Friday I suppose, but the point remains, as investors and advisers we recommend thinking and behaving longer than the news cycle